My Theory on Bitcoin’s Price for December 2021

The Bitcoin price has been falling 20% since mid November, from an ATH at 68k USD to 53k USD. Quite the opposite form what Plan B envisioned, a November close at 94k. Despite this, I am still very bullish on BTC and this dip is a good opportunity to buy. So, this is how I think December is going to play out:

In the short term…

Bollinger Bands. Retrieved from Trading View

According to Bollinger Bands, the BTC price can still fall to 52, 800 USD (lower band) and could pump to 63k USD (upper band). The resistance level (orange line) is at 58k USD. This indicates that the price must hold and breakout the 58k USD price for it to recover.

In addition, the 13-day MA and 30-day MA crossed, indicating a death cross. This is further conformation that the price is going to drop in the following days.

Death Cross (13&30 day MA). Retrieved from Trading View

WHY IS BTC DUMPING?

Wyckoff Distribuition Schematic
Wyckoff Distribuition Schematic. Retrieved on Trading View

It seems like this BTC dump was triggered by a Wyckoff Distribution Schematic orchestrated by some big player/institution.Where the big players/institutions take profits at the top, make the price go sideways and exhaust the supply and rebuy during the dip at a cheaper price.

Usually, a Wyckoff Distribution is followed by a Wyckoff accumulation that looks like this:

Wyckoff Accumulation Schematic

There is a selling climax (SC), followed by secondary test and then a spring. The spring is very important since it determines the lowest low and the price recovers afterwards.Meaning that the price is going to drop further, unless that it retraces to 58K, hold the price for a few days and makes a breakthrough.

This is not the first time that we experience a Wyckoff Distribution in the cycle. During the big crash in May 21’ of this year after reaching an ATH, a Wyckoff Distribution Schematic took place.

Wyckoff Distribution Schematic Applied to Bitcoin. Retrieved on Trading View

It was followed by a Wyckoff Accumulation and it looked like this…

Wyckoff Accumulation Schematic Applied to Bitcoin. Retrieved on Trading View

The price dropped 55% in a couple of days from 68K USD to 30K USD. The most important aspect to look for in the Wyckoff Accumulation is the spring. The spring is the last part of the schematic, the price drops lower than the resistance to then bounce back up.

During the May dump, the price went to 28K USD. This is how it looked on Bollinger Bands…

Bollinger Bands for Bitoin May 2021. Retrieved on Trading View

According to The Golden Ratio Multiplier, we are still in an accumulation phase (green line). When the price of BTC reaches 74,200 USD we will enter the lower bull of the cycle. The lower bull ends (red line) at a 92,700 USD price point and the upper bull start at 92k USD and ends at 139K USD. In previous cycles the price of BTC went above the estimated top of the upper bull (purple line)

The Golden Ratio Multiplier. Retrieved from Look Into Bitcoin

With the being said, I am still very bullish on Bitcoin, however, I estimate that this cycle will end around Q1 and Q2 of next year. It seems like cycles are lengthening. End price for dec: 71K, however it can still go higher…

Remember Bitcoin is a waiting game, so be patient and enjoy!

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